How we calculate
Official data, simple maths, honest limits.
Last updated September 2026.
| Source | Publisher | What we use it for |
|---|---|---|
| UCAS End of Cycle 2025 | UCAS | Offer rates by university and subject (applications and offers, England, age 18) |
| Discover Uni and HESA data | Office for Students / HESA | Course list, subject groups, entrant grade profiles |
| POLAR4 and TUNDRA | Office for Students | Area participation measures behind contextual offers |
| University course pages | Each university | Typical offers and required subjects, read September 2026 |
| OfferCheck student reports | OfferCheck | Offers students reported to us (offers only). Used to adjust for how your grades compare with the offer |
Each number on a course page names its source and year.
- LikelyRoughly an even chance of an offer or better (50% or more).
- PossibleBetween about 1 in 5 and 1 in 2 (20% to 50%).
- ReachLess than about 1 in 5. Also used for any course with an interview or admissions test, because grades only get you into the room.
- Not enough dataWe have neither an offer rate nor a typical offer we trust, so we do not guess.
We never show a per-course percentage. A band is a range, because the data cannot support more.
- Start from the offer rate. The share of applicants (England, age 18) who got an offer for that subject at that university in UCAS 2025. If a university has fewer than 20 applications, we use the national rate for the subject.
- Compare your grades with the typical offer. The gap is counted in grades (8 UCAS points each). Our student-reported offers show how much the odds move for each grade above or below the offer. Contextual students are compared with the contextual offer where one exists.
- Combine your choices. The chance of no offers blends two cases: every choice missing out independently, and one shared setback (like missing your grades) hitting all five at once. We show it as “about 1 in N”, rounded, and cap any single choice at 97%.
- Swaps. We try replacing one choice with another course in the same subject group and show the swap only if it clearly lowers the chance of no offers.
Independence is a simplification: in reality a weak application hurts you everywhere. Treat the figure as a guide, not a forecast.
- High: a university-level offer rate from at least 100 applications, a verified or well-supported typical offer, and your grades comparable with it.
- Medium: at least two of those three inputs.
- Low: one input, a typical offer found by web search, or a fallback to the overall offer rate only.
- Interviews and admissions tests. Oxford, Cambridge, medicine, dentistry and veterinary courses select on more than grades. We cap them below Likely and say so.
- Typical offers. Some universities do not publish one, or publish a range. We mark those lower confidence or show “see university site”.
- Other qualifications. A-levels and the IB are compared directly. BTEC, Scottish Highers and others fall back to the overall offer rate with low confidence.
- Contextual offers. Eligibility rules differ by university. We use them only where a university publishes one.
- Past cycles. Offer rates describe 2025 applicants. Courses change, and so can demand.
- Student reports. Offers reported to us come from students who chose to share them, so they are not a random sample.
Found a mistake? Tell us and we will check the source.