Which offer should you firm?
Once all your decisions are in, you pick one offer as your firm choice and, if you want, one as your insurance. Everything else is declined. The rule that matters most: if you meet your firm's conditions you are committed to it, and your insurance only counts if you miss the firm but meet the insurance.
Data: UCAS End of Cycle 2025 and university course pages, updated November 2026. Methodology
The short version
- Firm the course you would most like to go to, as long as its offer is realistic for your predicted grades.
- Insure a course you would genuinely be happy at, with an offer at least one grade lower than your firm. Two grades lower is safer.
- Do not insure a course you would not attend. If you meet its conditions and miss your firm, you are committed to it, and leaving means Clearing self-release.
- Do not firm and insure courses with the same grades. If you miss one, you will very likely miss both.
How far apart should firm and insurance be?
UK typical offers bunch together. Across 8,082 courses with a published A-level offer, the most common are ABB (2,000 courses), BBC (1,397 courses), BBB (1,216 courses). Each step down is one grade, worth 8 UCAS tariff points. The table shows the ladder: if your firm asks for AAB, an insurance at ABB is one grade lower and at BBB two grades lower.
| Typical offer | UCAS points | Courses asking for it |
|---|---|---|
| A*AA | 152 | 214 |
| AAA | 144 | 775 |
| AAB | 136 | 1,012 |
| ABB | 128 | 2,000 |
| BBB | 120 | 1,216 |
| BBC | 112 | 1,397 |
| BCC | 104 | 413 |
| CCC | 96 | 356 |
| CCD | 88 | 128 |
A useful test: look at your predicted grades and imagine dropping one grade in one subject. That is the most common way to miss an offer. If that result still meets your insurance, the insurance is doing its job. If it misses both offers, you are relying on the firm university being flexible on results day.
When a near miss still works
Universities sometimes accept applicants who narrowly miss their conditions, especially if the course has spaces. This is more likely at universities with high offer rates and less likely on courses with fixed places, such as medicine, where the national offer rate was only 34% in 2025. You cannot plan around it, but it is a reason to firm the course you want most rather than the safest one.
Common mistakes
- Firming the safe option. If you are predicted AAA and your favourite course asks for AAB, firm it. An insurance protects you; a safe firm only lowers your ceiling.
- Insuring an aspiration. A higher-ranked university with a higher offer cannot act as a backup, because the insurance only matters when you have missed your firm.
- Ignoring contextual and reduced offers. If a university has made you a lower offer because of your background or a scheme, the lower offer is the one that counts when comparing.
- Forgetting non-grade conditions. Some offers depend on a specific subject grade, an EPQ, a fitness to practise check or an admissions test score.
If you have no offers you want
If all five choices end in no offers, or you decline them all, you can use UCAS Extra from February to add one choice at a time, then Clearing from July. Before that point, check how balanced your choices were: the lowest offer rate courses show where rejections are most likely, and when universities send offers shows whether a missing decision is just late. Next year's key dates are in the UCAS 2027 deadline guide.
See the odds for your own five choices
Add your predicted grades and courses. OfferCheck compares each one to its typical offer and offer rate, and flags the chance of ending up with no offers.
Check your 5 UCAS choicesFrequently asked questions
- What is the difference between a firm and an insurance choice?
- Your firm choice is your first preference. If you meet its conditions you are committed to it. Your insurance is a backup that you go to only if you miss your firm's conditions but meet the insurance's.
- Should my insurance offer be lower than my firm?
- Yes. An insurance with the same or higher grades than your firm almost never helps, because if you miss the firm you will usually miss the insurance too. Aim for at least one grade lower, ideally two.
- Do I have to choose an insurance?
- No. You can accept a firm only. That makes sense when your firm's offer is comfortably below your predicted grades, but most applicants are better protected with an insurance.
- When do I have to reply to my offers?
- UCAS sets your reply date once you have all your decisions. If every university decides by 12 May 2027, the reply deadline for 2027 entry is 2 June 2027. Check the exact date in your UCAS Hub.
- Can I change my firm choice later?
- Within 14 days of accepting you can change your replies through UCAS. After that you can still ask a university to release you, or use Clearing self-release after results.
More guides
- Lowest offer rates in the UK
- Highest offer rates in the UK
- When universities send offers
- UCAS deadline 2027
- Law offer rates by university
- Economics offer rates by university
- Psychology offer rates by university
- Medicine offer rates by university
- Computer science offer rates by university
- Neuroscience entry requirements and offer rates
- Offer database: every UK course